The Problem With Experts

This was to be among the worst hurricane seasons on record. Unequivocally. The weather experts said it, politicians said it, all manner of Global Warming pundits said it, and it was just plain conventional wisdom. Except that it hasn’t happened and almost certainly won’t. And now the experts have changed their minds.

That’s thing about predicting the future. It’s pretty much impossible. And we put a lot of stock in experts weighing in on everything – including terrorism, consumer electronics, weather, and fall of the Berlin Wall.

I’m not suggesting that we don’t consult with and listen to experts. Just that it’s probably a good idea to consider the alternatives as well, and remember: It’s really hard to predict the future of things you don’t control. Just ask Neville Chamberlain.

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